Awards season is upon us once again, and with Oscar nominations finally out, it’s time to make some early predictions. Though there’s still plenty of time for things to change, here are some of our initial thoughts about what might happen, as well as some of our personal picks.
Canada is still yet to receive many of the nominees in theatres, so we haven’t covered every category — keep an eye on Imprint’s website for updated predictions once we’ve seen more of the nominees.
With the BAFTAs and Guild awards still remaining, the tide could turn this month. Await our updated predictions after the BAFTAs, Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild of America and Producers Guild of America awards. (In a twist of fate, the Writers Guild will be having their awards ceremony after the Academy Awards, so we’re excited to go into the ceremony with one less precursor to base our predictions on).
Best Picture:
Abhiraj: Oppenheimer looks like it’s poised to take home the biggest award of the night after winning all the precursors so far, however my personal favourite, Anatomy of a Fall, could upset it. Let’s see which direction the Producers Guild decides to go on Feb. 25.
Andie: Provided Oppenheimer keeps riding the wave of success it’s been experiencing, it seems like it has the best shot at taking home Best Picture. As both an (unconventional) summer blockbuster as well as a technically astounding piece of filmmaking, it managed to hit the sweet spot between commercial and critical success.
Best Directing:
Abhiraj: Christopher Nolan has been the frontrunner this award season, and I would be very surprised if there is an upset in this category. Personally, I would like to see Justine Triet or Martin Scorsese take home the Academy Award.
Andie: Christopher Nolan is the clear frontrunner here, having already won several direction awards this year, including the Golden Globe and Critics Choice. It would be quite exciting to see Justine Triet win, though!
Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Abhiraj: Historically, this has been a difficult category to predict. That changes this year. Lily Gladstone’s performance in Killers of the Flower Moon has been the best across all four acting categories by a mile, and while she hasn’t had the clean sweep season I was hoping for, she is still arguably likely to take home the golden statuette. An unlikely but possible upset could be Emma Stone.
Andie: It’s no question that Lily Gladstone should win this award. Mollie Burkhart is truly at the heart of Killers, and Gladstone’s screen presence is simply magnetic. If Academy voters have any sense at all, she’ll be holding that Oscar on March 10.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Abhiraj: This is a race that comes down to Paul Giamatti and Cillian Murphy, and I think Giammati is slightly more likely to take this one home (or to a fast-food joint).
Andie: Cillian Murphy, like Nolan, has been on quite the winning streak this awards season, so he seems like a pretty safe bet (especially considering the Academy’s love for biopics). Paul Giamatti could prove to be a strong opponent, though, having gained a lot of buzz in recent weeks. Personally, I’m rooting for Murphy.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Abhiraj: Da’Vine Joy Randolph has dominated the season and the conversation so far, so I would say it’s a fairly safe bet that she’ll take this one home.
Andie: Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the clear frontrunner in this category. She’s won numerous awards already, including the Critics Choice and Golden Globe, and seems to have a clear path to the Oscar.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Abhiraj: Robert Downey Jr. has been leading the season, in what has been a surprising turn of events (for me at least). A De Niro upset wouldn’t be particularly surprising though.
Andie: At this point, I would be pretty shocked if anyone other than Robert Downey Jr. wins this award. I’m just upset that Charles Melton won’t have a shot here — his performance in May December is incredible, and would’ve been my pick.
Best Original Screenplay
Abhiraj: Triet and Arthur Harari are taking this one home for Anatomy of a Fall. No other category is as locked in as this one.
Andie: This category could go a couple of ways, but I think (and hope) that Anatomy of a Fall will take it. If you ask me, the writing in Anatomy is simply on another level (and really, I’d give it an Oscar for the “goats” line alone).
Best Adapted Screenplay
Abhiraj: A very closely contested race, which could go any which way but I think Cord Jefferson is likely to come out on top and win for his feature debut, American Fiction.
Andie: This category is a bit trickier. Barbie’s inclusion here shakes things up a bit, but it seems like an unlikely win at this point in the season. If I had to guess, I’d bet on another win for Oppenheimer, whose unique first-person-perspective screenplay might give it an edge.
Best Original Song
Abhiraj: This one comes down to the two Barbie songs but I think ”What Was I Made For” will have the edge over “I’m Just Ken.”
Andie: “I’m Just Ken” certainly boasts the strongest campaign of the two Barbie songs nominated, and it seems unlikely that music from any other film even has a shot here. Depending on the mood of the Academy though, “What Was I Made For” could also easily take this one.
Best Original Score
Both: Right now it’s looking like this will go to either Robbie Robertson (Killers of the Flower Moon) or Ludwig Göransson (Oppenheimer).
Best Sound
Both: By all accounts, it looks like the Oppenheimer sweep is likely to continue in this category.
Best Animated Feature
Both: The Boy and the Heron seems like the obvious choice here, and for good reason.
Best International Feature
Both: The Zone of Interest (submitted from the UK) has been receiving critical acclaim ever since its world premiere at Cannes, and looks like a pretty clear frontrunner in this category.
Best Cinematography
Both: Longtime Nolan collaborator Hoyte van Hoytema’s work in Oppenheimer has been receiving lots of acclaim throughout the awards season, so it seems likely he’ll take this one.
Best Editing
Both: It would be no surprise if Thelma Schoonmaker — who now holds the record for most-ever nominations in the category (this being her ninth) — wins the Oscar. It would be her fourth win in the category, a number which would also set a new all-time record.
